ROE V. WADE AT CROSSROADS: Abortion foes are just one Supreme Court justice away from victory
In Newsweek.

Anyone who thinks abortion rights aren’t in serious jeopardy should consider the plight of Sen. Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania.
Specter has been a Republican for 40 years. He’s in line to become chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee in January. He has voted to confirm every single one of President George W. Bush’s judicial nominees. Despite that record, angry conservatives are determined to block his rise to chairman. Why?
Because Specter supports abortion rights. And because he had the temerity to state the obvious: That Bush would have trouble winning Senate confirmation of any Supreme Court nominee who is notoriously anti-abortion rights. That’s a simple mathematical fact.
It takes only 51 of 100 Senate votes to confirm a judicial nominee. But it takes 60 votes to cut off debate and move to a confirmation vote. Come January, there will be 55 Republicans in the Senate. Do the math. That’s not enough to derail a determined Democratic filibuster. Specter said he was alluding to that numerical reality when he made the remark that has haunted him all week.
But conservative foes of abortion rights have been emboldened by the perception that they provided Bush’s margin of victory Nov. 2. They aren’t of a mind to tolerate even the barest hint of resistance to their agenda, which is reversal of Roe v. Wade. That would be a tragedy. It would strip women of the right to control their bodies and turn the clock back to the grisly days of back-alley abortions.
Bush has a choice to make. Option 1: He could opt for polarizing political warfare by nominating anti-abortion absolutists for the top court. He could push for a change in Senate filibuster rules to deprive Democrats of that time-honored tactic and rely on raw political power to beat back all opposition. Option 2: Do what he promised during the campaign – impose no abortion litmus test for judicial candidates, while nominating people who will strictly interpret the Constitution rather than legislating from the bench. That’s the better course…
Replacing Rehnquist, a solid vote against abortion rights, isn’t likely to alter the court balance. But that balance could tip decisively should any one of the abortion-rights supporters leave the bench. That includes Justices John Paul Stevens, Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Stephen Breyer, as well as swing voters David Souter, Sandra Day O’Connor and Anthony Kennedy, whose positions on abortion are less black and white.
The nation may be approaching a legal sea change that could end or sharply curtail a woman’s right to abortion. But change that profound should be approached through reasoned debate, not a political beat-down.

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Abortion foes are just one Supreme Court justice away from victory
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November 13, 2004
Anyone who thinks abortion rights aren’t in serious jeopardy should consider the plight of Sen. Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania.
Specter has been a Republican for 40 years. He’s in line to become chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee in January. He has voted to confirm every single one of President George W. Bush’s judicial nominees. Despite that record, angry conservatives are determined to block his rise to chairman. Why?
Because Specter supports abortion rights. And because he had the temerity to state the obvious: That Bush would have trouble winning Senate confirmation of any Supreme Court nominee who is notoriously anti-abortion rights. That’s a simple mathematical fact.
It takes only 51 of 100 Senate votes to confirm a judicial nominee. But it takes 60 votes to cut off debate and move to a confirmation vote. Come January, there will be 55 Republicans in the Senate. Do the math. That’s not enough to derail a determined Democratic filibuster. Specter said he was alluding to that numerical reality when he made the remark that has haunted him all week.
But conservative foes of abortion rights have been emboldened by the perception that they provided Bush’s margin of victory Nov. 2. They aren’t of a mind to tolerate even the barest hint of resistance to their agenda, which is reversal of Roe v. Wade. That would be a tragedy. It would strip women of the right to control their bodies and turn the clock back to the grisly days of back-alley abortions.
Bush has a choice to make. Option 1: He could opt for polarizing political warfare by nominating anti-abortion absolutists for the top court. He could push for a change in Senate filibuster rules to deprive Democrats of that time-honored tactic and rely on raw political power to beat back all opposition. Option 2: Do what he promised during the campaign – impose no abortion litmus test for judicial candidates, while nominating people who will strictly interpret the Constitution rather than legislating from the bench. That’s the better course.
Partisan warfare over the abortion positions of Supreme Court nominees would inflame the country’s political division and undermine public confidence in the independence of the judicial system.
Bush has the right to nominate people who share his political views. But he should engage Democrats in the process in search of nominees acceptable to both sides. Democrats have blocked 10 of his lower court picks, employing the filibuster as their weapon of choice. But Bush is in the driver’s seat. The Senate confirmed more than 200 of his judicial nominees, many of whom share his anti-abortion convictions.
Anti-abortion forces won’t like a less confrontational approach because they’re just one justice away from achieving their objective. Roe v. Wade, which established a constitutional right to abortion, commanded a 7 to 2 majority in 1973. More recent abortion decisions have seen that majority slip to 5 to 4. There are no immediate Supreme Court vacancies. There haven’t been any for a decade. But the court is aging and Chief Justice William Rehnquist was recently diagnosed with thyroid cancer. There will probably be one or more spots to fill in the next four years.
Replacing Rehnquist, a solid vote against abortion rights, isn’t likely to alter the court balance. But that balance could tip decisively should any one of the abortion-rights supporters leave the bench. That includes Justices John Paul Stevens, Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Stephen Breyer, as well as swing voters David Souter, Sandra Day O’Connor and Anthony Kennedy, whose positions on abortion are less black and white.
The nation may be approaching a legal sea change that could end or sharply curtail a woman’s right to abortion. But change that profound should be approached through reasoned debate, not a political beat-down.